The Current 'Situation'

 “TARIFF, n. A scale of taxes on imports, designed to protect the domestic producer against the greed of his consumer.” - Ambrose Pierce, The Devil's Dictionary

Your bloggist has always viewed this blog - and also the work blog which I used to write before I transcended being a wage slave - as an alternative to simply chuntering to myself when something in the world irritates me. The recent behaviour of the Tangerine Tosser has clearly met  that criterion, but I have previously resisted the temptation to write about it, mainly because pretty much everyone in the UK (except a few outliers whom Private Eye refers to as 'Lone Derangers') feels the same as me anyway.

However, there are two elements that I now feel impelled to cover. Firstly, the likely effect on the boardgame publishing, distribution and retail industry; i.e. it will die and die quickly. I won't elaborate on the details - you can easily find it all explained elsewhere on the interweb - but it arises because the large majority of games are made in China and because the US is a significant slice of the global market, and  of course an even larger slice of the English-speaking market. Bear in mind if you do seek out and read such pieces that many of them were written when the tariffs were at 40%. None of the ameliorations suggested, cross-subsidies being prominent among them, will work at a 145% tariff level. The only technical point I will make - briefly donning my Finance Director's hat - is that the cashflow impact on working capital is just as important as increased cost/reduced profitability. I am aware of one US publisher which has already laid off the majority of its staff; it's inevitable that others will follow. I focus here on boardgames because I play a lot, but really it's just a microcosm of hundreds of other sectors, all of which will be negatively affected.

In the case of boardgames, what will the effect on me and my playmates be? Very little if truth be told. We have more than enough games on the shelf to last us for the rest of our lives and beyond. Indeed, the wife of the member of our small but perfectly formed group who is most prone to backing crowdfunding campaigns is reported to be elated.

My record in making predictions is patchy at best, but I'm going to make one regardless. Long before physical trade impacts of the type outlined above start to impact at the macroeconomic level there will be a sudden financial crisis, of the sort we saw in 2008. As this week's Economist puts it in fairly understated manner: "markets are starting to doubt whether Mr Trump can govern America competently or consistently".

Secondly, I note that it has become common to compare the Mango Mussolini to despised political figures from the past. That's obviously not the sort of thing that this blog goes in for. But if it were, I think Arthur Scargill is the comparison which I would draw, and not just for the preposterous combovers affected by both men. It's more to do with their decisions to take on implacable opponents, ones who were never going to back down, and to do so when those opponents had had years to prepare for the only tactic that our anti-heroes had in their armoury. Admittedly, in this scenario Xi Jinping may well object vehemently to being compared to Margaret Thatcher - and who could blame him?

Let's end with a quote from a man who saw all this coming:

"...we are for Free Trade, because by Free Trade all economical laws, with their most astounding contradictions, will act upon a larger scale, upon the territory of the whole earth; and because from the uniting of all these contradictions in a single group, where they will stand face to face, will result the struggle which will itself eventuate in the emancipation of the proletariat." - Karl Marx